Michelle, this is well thought out and insightful. Putting the drug market in San Francisco into economic flow terms was fascinating. Keep up the stellar work.
I don’t think your analysis is correct. I hate Boudin but what you’re saying doesn’t add up.
You are looking at it backwards. Your premise is that more dealers equals lower prices.
I think it’s opposite side of the equation. Ultimately regardless of “why”, the main thing is more drugs equals lower prices. But the dealers aren’t competing against each other like a normal marketplace. If a dealer starts flooding the market with more drugs, the other dealers will try to stop her. Or kill her. I don’t think they will sit around and drop their prices to undercut them like a regular marketplace.
The idea that no cash bail means more drug dealers doesn’t seem right to me.
So it feels like this is a supply side issue, meaning more heroin is being produced and flooding the market or it’s being cut with cheap Chinese fentanyl which is lowering the prices. But both are because of increased supply.
Classic case of: see bad thing blame thing I don’t like.
The price of opioids have been dropping drastically across the world for more than ten years mostly due to supply side factors (he says skimming the literature but the consensus is pretty strong).
But worse yet you even contradicr your initial source who says that the price of heroin has fallen as addicts have switched to fentanyl.
🎙 The Chesa Effect?
Thank you for shining a spotlight on the ridiculous characters that unfortunately run San Francisco, my former home for many years.
Michelle, this is well thought out and insightful. Putting the drug market in San Francisco into economic flow terms was fascinating. Keep up the stellar work.
I don’t think your analysis is correct. I hate Boudin but what you’re saying doesn’t add up.
You are looking at it backwards. Your premise is that more dealers equals lower prices.
I think it’s opposite side of the equation. Ultimately regardless of “why”, the main thing is more drugs equals lower prices. But the dealers aren’t competing against each other like a normal marketplace. If a dealer starts flooding the market with more drugs, the other dealers will try to stop her. Or kill her. I don’t think they will sit around and drop their prices to undercut them like a regular marketplace.
The idea that no cash bail means more drug dealers doesn’t seem right to me.
So it feels like this is a supply side issue, meaning more heroin is being produced and flooding the market or it’s being cut with cheap Chinese fentanyl which is lowering the prices. But both are because of increased supply.
Thanks, this is helpful.
You nailed this. Can I share this image on social with credit to you. Can you contact me joe@joeforda.com
Excellent, informative.
That SF is grappling after the Titanic hit the ice erg is frightening.
I'm a former Democrat. I can't understand how people don't see this as policy genocide by Dems and left-of-Dems.
Highly suggest that you also read
https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/slow-motion-suicide-in-san-francisco
Duh. :).
Classic case of: see bad thing blame thing I don’t like.
The price of opioids have been dropping drastically across the world for more than ten years mostly due to supply side factors (he says skimming the literature but the consensus is pretty strong).
But worse yet you even contradicr your initial source who says that the price of heroin has fallen as addicts have switched to fentanyl.